Mumbai Terrorist Attacks
Like most of the rest of the world I have been watching the horrifying Mumbai attacks off and on for three days. At times, I have simply not been able to keep watching.
It is clear to me that these attacks, although planned months in advance, were most likely ordered this week by elements within the Pakistani intelligence services (ISI) in response to gestures of peace and reconciliation by the Pakistani civilian government (not unlike the Pakistnai military's Kargil adventure in 1999 in the midst of an Indo-Pak peace process). The ISI and the Pakistani military have almost no interest in conflict resolution with India, as the perpetuation of a permanent enemy is their raison d'etre.
I hope that India will react with equal measures of restraint and determination.
The Pakistani government has already agreed to India's request to send the head of the ISI to Mumbai to aid in the investigation. It would be useful if the Pakistani government and military reiterated their renunciation of the use of terrorism to achieve political objectives (particularly in regard to the Kashmir issue) and promised to surrender any and all conspirators involved in the attacks to the International Criminal Court.
The US and Europe can help by adding pressure on the Pakistani government and military by threatening to veto the distribution of the second tranche of Pakistan's emergency IMF loan if the government does not cooperate fully. As a negotiating tactic, the US Congress should reopen the debate and hold hearing so as to determine whether or not Pakistan is a state sponsor of terrorism.
Hopefully the situation can be calmed and the perpetrators and planners brought to justice without a need for armed conflict. However, I am pessimistic that little more than scape goating and issue deflection will emerge from the Pakistani government in the long run. India will have to decide how many more times it can let its civilians and visitors endure such tragedies.
It is clear to me that these attacks, although planned months in advance, were most likely ordered this week by elements within the Pakistani intelligence services (ISI) in response to gestures of peace and reconciliation by the Pakistani civilian government (not unlike the Pakistnai military's Kargil adventure in 1999 in the midst of an Indo-Pak peace process). The ISI and the Pakistani military have almost no interest in conflict resolution with India, as the perpetuation of a permanent enemy is their raison d'etre.
I hope that India will react with equal measures of restraint and determination.
The Pakistani government has already agreed to India's request to send the head of the ISI to Mumbai to aid in the investigation. It would be useful if the Pakistani government and military reiterated their renunciation of the use of terrorism to achieve political objectives (particularly in regard to the Kashmir issue) and promised to surrender any and all conspirators involved in the attacks to the International Criminal Court.
The US and Europe can help by adding pressure on the Pakistani government and military by threatening to veto the distribution of the second tranche of Pakistan's emergency IMF loan if the government does not cooperate fully. As a negotiating tactic, the US Congress should reopen the debate and hold hearing so as to determine whether or not Pakistan is a state sponsor of terrorism.
Hopefully the situation can be calmed and the perpetrators and planners brought to justice without a need for armed conflict. However, I am pessimistic that little more than scape goating and issue deflection will emerge from the Pakistani government in the long run. India will have to decide how many more times it can let its civilians and visitors endure such tragedies.
Labels: failed states, imf, india, obama, pakistan, south asia, terrorism
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